Morgan Stanley says ITC shares may outperform country index over next 30 days
Foreign brokerage firm Morgan Stanley said that ITC Ltd share price will rise relative to the country index (MSCI India) over the next 30 days. In a tactical research note, the firm said that the stake sale of 3.5 per cent or 43.7 crore shares by British American Tobacco (BAT) in ITC clears supply overhang on the stock which has been seen recently as the ITC stock underperformed the market by 8 per cent recently.
Morgan Stanley predicted a resumption in the stock’s outperformance citing its fundamental view of a moderate and infrequent cigarette tax environment and continued scale-up of non-cigarette businesses.
“We estimate that there is about an 80 per cent-plus (or “highly likely”) probability for the scenario. Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on our assessment of the likelihood of the scenario,” it said.
Morgan Stanley found the stock worth ₹491 with a rating of “overweight”. On March 13, the stock of ITC rose to an intraday high of 8% before closing at ₹422.45.
The brokerage firm said adverse policies regarding cigarettes such as levying high taxes, a ban on loose sales, etc increases risk but a benign tax environment for tobacco and the successful launch of differentiated products in the FMCG segment will prove to be growth boosters.
