According to data shared by Gartner, Indian shipments of laptops and desktops are expected to drop 13.4% this calendar year to 12.4 million units from 14.4 million last year. Even though the second half of the year should be better for PC companies, analysts said the sales growth seen in the last two years is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon.

Analysts said the weak performance is driven by an inflation-led drop in demand, which is expected to continue this year. PC manufacturers, too, are likely to adjust unsold stocks due to the ongoing demand slump.

“The first half of 2023 is expected to be weak, as inventory is lowered and then recovered in the second half, as inventory clears and orders flow through. As you might have seen, the first quarter of 2023 was down 30% worldwide, and India did not escape this, but was better than elsewhere,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner.

Navkendar Singh, associate vice president at IDC India also said PC shipments in India are set to decline this year. A February report by IDC said total shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstations in India grew by only 0.3% year-on-year (YoY) in 2022, despite a 28.5% drop in Q4 2022.

Singh attributed the tepid market forecasts to high inflation, recession fears and overall cautiousness around spending across both consumers and enterprises. “Also, with offices and schools reopening, demand has softened and/or is getting postponed,” he added.

That said, Singh opines that the Indian market may start rebounding in the second half of the year. “But that still won’t be anywhere close to the levels of the last 2 years.”

Gartner has projected PC shipments to recover to a double-digit growth of 13.8% in 2024.

This year’s weakness will happen following two years of robust growth in PC sales after the covid outbreak forced a shift towards remote working and learning.

According to IDC data from that year, India shipped a record-high 14.8 million PCs including desktops, laptops, and workstations in 2021 at an annual growth rate of 44.5%.

“The PC market is still growing in India, with new users coming in on the consumer side and digitization of business creating new demand on the business side. Gaming should become a driver as more users move to larger-screen PCs for a more immersive experience,” said Gartner’s Atwal.